This discussion paper compares four leading emission pathways for shipping and their underlying technology-policy mixes to identify benchmarks for the assessment of the credibility and feasibility of transition plans in the sector. While none of these pathways offers a sufficiently robust 1.5°C-aligned pathway, the International Energy Agency’s Net Zero Emissions (IEA NZE) and the One Earth Climate Model 2.0 (OECM) pathways have noteworthy strengths since the latter is based on a 1.5°C-aligned carbon budget while the former provides the most robust and detailed technology-policy pathway.

This work is part of our Net Zero Transition Plans research with Oxford Sustainable Finance Group.