As industries navigate the transition to net-zero emissions, aviation faces unique challenges balancing growth with decarbonisation. With air travel demand expected to triple by mid-century and limited near-term alternatives to fossil fuels, credible climate transition plans are essential-yet robust assessment tools remain scarce. This study introduces a correlation-based scoring framework to evaluate airline transition plans using data from 84 airlines, representing 75% of industry emissions.

Key plan components (foundations, implementation, engagement, governance, and metrics) were coded into binary indicators and weighted based on their empirical correlation with short-term carbon performance, controlling for confounders like fleet age and passenger load. Results show that implementation strategies for new aircraft technologies and foundational climate targets show the strongest associations with emissions reductions. Governance mechanisms, while weaker in direct emissions impact, enhance plan credibility through accountability and alignment with standards, influencing long-term strategic outcomes. Our framework offers a scalable, data-driven approach that can be adapted to other hard-to-abate industries, enhancing regulatory oversight and investor accountability.

This paper is part of our work with Oxford Sustainable Finance Group in the Net Zero Transition Plans project.