Net Zero Transition Plans

Effective, credible transition plans are strategies for addressing transition risk and for getting to net-zero emissions. These would eventually drive provision of financial products and services. We study transition plans in the Net Zero Transition Plans project and focus on the provision of tools and data for assessing credibility of transition plans.

Assessing Corporate Transition Plans using a Production Asset-Based Planning Approach

A novel open-source methodology for assessing the credibility of corporate transition plans based on asset-level data to estimate CO2 emission trajectories: the production asset-based planning approach (APA).

Sustainability-Linked Bonds: Modelling for Sustainability Performance

Gireesh Shrimali (CGFI/University of Oxford) and Jose Resendiz (University of Oxford) propose and test a valuation model for sustainability-linked bonds.

Corporate net zero transition and financing cost: Evidence of impact from global energy and utilities sectors

Xiaoyan Zhou, Rachel Williams and CGFI's Gireesh Shrimali (all University of Oxford) study whether net zero transition (NZT) find that firms with higher levels of overall NZT disclosure experience lower cost of debt in the loan market.

A framework for assessing and managing dependencies in corporate transition plans

This perspective paper introduces the concept of transition plan dependencies.

Enhancing Comparability and Credibility of Transition Plans and Transition Risk Assessment with Standardized Net Zero Scenarios

A policy brief co-authored by CGFI's Gireesh Shrimali on net zero scenarios for transition plan and risk assessments, including recommendations for decision makers.

Emission and Technology Pathways in the Shipping Sector

This Feb 2024 discussion paper compares leading emission pathways for shipping and their underlying technology-policy mixes to identify benchmarks for the assessment of the credibility and feasibility of transition plans in the sector.

Assessing the Credibility of Climate Transition Plans in the Aviation Sector

This paper introduces the Climate Transition Integrity Score, a novel framework based on climate pathways, technology roadmaps, policy assumptions, and sustainability reporting frameworks.

Assessing the Credibility of Climate Transition Plans in the Oil and Gas Sector

In this paper, we review how the TPT Framework, CDP’s climate change questionnaire, and CA100+ disclosure and alignment assessment support the disclosure of elements that are relevant to assess the credibility of a transition plan.

Assessing the Credibility of Climate Transition Plans in the Power Sector

This paper reviews the existing transition disclosure practices and guidelines for transforming global electricity generation. It explores feasible transition pathways, with a focus on key levers that can help achieve a net zero transition for the power sector.

Assessing the Credibility of Climate Transition Plans in the Steel Sector

This paper contributes to current discussions about how to assess the credibility of steel companies’ plans to reach net zero emissions by 2050.

Evaluating net zero transition plans in emissions-intensive sectors

Credible, feasible and actionable transition plans are critical to achieving net zero. The Oxford Sustainable Finance Group has published a new series of discussion papers that aim to develop a deeper understanding of transition plans and finance across four emissions-intensive sectors: oil & gas, power generation, steel, and aviation.

Blog: Transition pathway envelopes are required to guide transition finance

What can be financed under net-zero commitments and until when? This blog by Dr Gireesh Shrimali discusses pathway envelopes - the set of feasible investment pathways under net-zero commitments.

Leadership

Ben Caldecott

Gireesh Shrimali

Matt Scott

Researchers

Jose Garcia Resendiz

Krista Halttunen

David Kampmann

Adrian Rose

Xiaoyan Zhou

In the first phase of the project (2022-23), we focused on developing a deeper understanding of transition plans and finance across four emissions-intensive sectors: oil & gas, power generation, steel, and aviation. The research focused on Identifying key aspects, suggesting ideal solutions, providing a comparative analysis of existing solutions, and setting up future deep dives.

In the second phase of the project (2023-24), we are now focusing on some of deep dives identified in Phase 1, namely: the role of external dependencies in credible transition plans, using asset-level data to assess credibility of transition plans, investigating the impact of credible transition plans on the cost of capital, and designing sustainability-linked finance products using transition plans.

Beyond Phase 2 (2025+), we plan to continue engaging in specific questions of relevance to credible transition plans, established via continuous dialogues with our stakeholders, including policymakers, regulators, financial institutions, corporations, and non-profits.